In Japan, the Delphi method has been used since 1971 to predict possible technological developments. The same approach was used in Germany for the first time in 1992. This book analyses and compares the results from studies carried out in both countries. This comparison allows conclusions to be drawn as to the relevance of certain fields of technology or disciplines - not only for public policy but also for companies. Possible realization goals, constraints on their achievement, the current R&D level of the two nations and the necessity of international co-operation all give hints on tomorrow's technology and its economic and societal impacts.|In Japan, the Delphi method is applied since 1971 to foresee possible technological developments. The same approach was used in Germany in 1992 for the first time. The German expert survey about the development of future technology was based on the Japanese survey conducted in 1991 and discussed the same topics.
In this book, the results of both studies are compared and analysed. From the comparison, conclusions can be drawn on the relevance of certain technology fields or disciplines not only for public technology policy but also for companies. Possible times of realization, constraints on the realization, the current R&D level of nations or the necessity of international co-operation give hints about tomorrow's technology and its economic and societal impacts.
1 General Method.- 1.1 Review of Western Literature on the Delphi Approach.- 1.2 Overview of the Previous Delphi Experience in Japan.- 1.3 Basic Statistics.- 1.4 Special Aspects of Transposing the Japanese Delphi Approach to Another Country.- 1.5 Outline of Survey Parameters and Data Processing for the Comparison.- 1.5.1 Degree of Expertise.- 1.5.2 Degree of Importance.- 1.5.3 Time of Realization.- 1.5.4 Degree of Certainty.- 1.5.5 Necessity of International Joint Development.- 1.5.6 R&D Level.- 1.5.7 Constraints.- 2 Basic Macro Comparison.- 2.1 Expert Knowledge.- 2.2 Importance.- 2.3 Time of Realization.- 2.4 Foresight Precision.- 2.5 International Co-operation.- 2.6 R&D Level.- 2.6.1 The Japanese View.- 2.6.2 The German View.- 2.7 Constraints.- 2.7.1 Technical Constraints.- 2.7.2 Institutional Constraints.- 2.7.3 Cultural Constraints.- 2.7.4 Cost Constraints.- 2.7.5 Constraints in Funding.- 2.7.6 Constraints in Fostering or Securing Human Resources.- 2.7.7 Constraints in the R&D System.- 2.7.8 Summary.- 2.8 Conclusions on the Macro Level.- 3 Cross Comparisons on the Macro Level.- 3.1 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Importance.- 3.2 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Forecasted Time of Realization.- 3.3 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Constraints on Realization.- 3.4 Comparison of the Importance and the Time of Realization.- 3.5 Comparison of the Time of Realization and the Time Variance.- 3.6 Comparing Certainty with Time of Realization Variance.- 3.7 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation with the Importance.- 3.8 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation and the Estimated Time of Realization.- 3.9 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation and the Present R&D Level.- 3.10 Correlation between Constraints and the Necessity of International Co-operation.- 3.11 Correlation of the R&D Level and the Importance of the Topics.- 3.12 Time of Realization and R&D Level.- 3.13 Correlation between the R&D Level and the Various Constraints on the Realization.- 3.14 Comparison of the Importance and the Various Constraints on the Realization.- 3.14.1 Technical Constraints.- 3.14.2 Cultural Constraints.- 3.14.3 Constraints in Costs.- 3.14.4 Constraints in Funding.- 3.14.5 Constraints in Fostering or Securing Human Resources.- 3.14.6 Constraints in the R&D System.- 3.15 Time of Realization in Comparison with the Constraints on Realization.- 3.15.1 Technical Constraints.- 3.15.2 Constraints in Funding.- 3.15.3 Constraints in Fostering or Securing Human Resources.- 3.15.4 Constraints in the R&D System.- 3.16 Comparative Conclusions for the Countries.- 4 Cross Comparisons of Technological Topics on the Micro Level.- 4.1 Comparing some Important Innovation Scenarios.- 4.1.1 Nanometer-size Structures.- 4.1.2 Cancer.- 4.1.3 Alzheimer´s Disease.- 4.1.4 Renewable Sources of Energy.- 4.2 Estimation of the Importance on the Micro Level.- 4.2.1 Ranking by Importance in Japan and Germany.- 4.2.2 Ranking by the Difference in the Importance.- 4.3 Forecast of the Realization Times on the Micro Level.- 4.3.1 Near Future.- 4.3.2 Distant Future.- 4.3.3 Large Differences in the Realization Time.- 4.4 International Co-operation.- 4.4.1 Necessity for International Co-operation on the Micro Level.- 4.4.2 Ranking of the Major Differences in International Cooperation.- 4.5 Time Variance of the Forecast Compared with Certainty.- 4.6 Most Efficient Innovation Projects.- 4.6.1 Materials and Processing.- 4.6.2 Information and Electronics.- 4.6.3 Life Sciences.- 4.6.4 Particles.- 4.6.5 Marine Science and Earth Science.- 4.6.6 Mineral and Water Resources.- 4.6.7 Energy.- 4.6.8 Environment.- 4.6.9 Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.- 4.6.10 Production.- 4.6.11 Urbanization and Construction.- 4.6.12 Communications.- 4.6.13 Space.- 4.6.14 Transportation.- 4.6.15 Medical Care and Health.- 4.6.16 Culture and Lifestyles.- 4.6.17 Conclusions from the Most Efficient Innovation Projects.- 5 Conclusions.- Literature.
In Japan, the Delphi method has been used since 1971 to predict possible technological developments. Possible realization goals, constraints on their achievement, the current R&D level of the two nations and the necessity of international co-operation all give hints on tomorrow's technology and its economic and societal impacts.
In this book, the Delphi Study on the development of technology, which has been conducted in Germany for the first time along Japanese lines, is analysed. Comparisons of the German and Japanese results point to the strengths and weaknesses of German technology policy. The study provides companies with a detailed information base about future technology and its development.
1 General Method.- 1.1 Review of Western Literature on the Delphi Approach.- 1.2 Overview of the Previous Delphi Experience in Japan.- 1.3 Basic Statistics.- 1.4 Special Aspects of Transposing the Japanese Delphi Approach to Another Country.- 1.5 Outline of Survey Parameters and Data Processing for the Comparison.- 2 Basic Macro Comparison.- 2.1 Expert Knowledge.- 2.2 Importance.- 2.3 Time of Realization.- 2.4 Foresight Precision.- 2.5 International Co-operation.- 2.6 R&D Level.- 2.7 Constraints.- 2.8 Conclusions on the Macro Level.- 3 Cross Comparisons on the Macro Level.- 3.1 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Importance.- 3.2 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Forecasted Time of Realization.- 3.3 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Constraints on Realization.- 3.4 Comparison of the Importance and the Time of Realization.- 3.5 Comparison of the Time of Realization and the Time Variance.- 3.6 Comparing Certainty with Time of Realization Variance.- 3.7 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation with the Importance.- 3.8 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation and the Estimated Time of Realization.- 3.9 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation and the Present R&D Level.- 3.10 Correlation between Constraints and the Necessity of International Co-operation.- 3.11 Correlation of the R&D Level and the Importance of the Topics.- 3.12 Time of Realization and R&D Level.- 3.13 Correlation between the R&D Level and the Various Constraints on the Realization.- 3.14 Comparison of the Importance and the Various Constraints on the Realization.- 3.15 Time of Realization in Comparison with the Constraints on Realization.- 3.16 Comparative Conclusions for the Countries.- 4 Cross Comparisons of Technological Topics on the Micro Level.- 4.1 Comparing some Important Innovation Scenarios.- 4.2 Estimation of the Importance on the Micro Level.- 4.3 Forecast of the Realization Times on the Micro Level.- 4.4 International Co-operation.- 4.5 Time Variance of the Forecast Compared with Certainty.- 4.6 Most Efficient Innovation Projects.- 5 Conclusions.- Literature.
Inhaltsverzeichnis
1 General Method.- 1.1 Review of Western Literature on the Delphi Approach.- 1.2 Overview of the Previous Delphi Experience in Japan.- 1.3 Basic Statistics.- 1.4 Special Aspects of Transposing the Japanese Delphi Approach to Another Country.- 1.5 Outline of Survey Parameters and Data Processing for the Comparison.- 1.5.1 Degree of Expertise.- 1.5.2 Degree of Importance.- 1.5.3 Time of Realization.- 1.5.4 Degree of Certainty.- 1.5.5 Necessity of International Joint Development.- 1.5.6 R&D Level.- 1.5.7 Constraints.- 2 Basic Macro Comparison.- 2.1 Expert Knowledge.- 2.2 Importance.- 2.3 Time of Realization.- 2.4 Foresight Precision.- 2.5 International Co-operation.- 2.6 R&D Level.- 2.6.1 The Japanese View.- 2.6.2 The German View.- 2.7 Constraints.- 2.7.1 Technical Constraints.- 2.7.2 Institutional Constraints.- 2.7.3 Cultural Constraints.- 2.7.4 Cost Constraints.- 2.7.5 Constraints in Funding.- 2.7.6 Constraints in Fostering or Securing Human Resources.- 2.7.7 Constraints in the R&D System.- 2.7.8 Summary.- 2.8 Conclusions on the Macro Level.- 3 Cross Comparisons on the Macro Level.- 3.1 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Importance.- 3.2 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Forecasted Time of Realization.- 3.3 Comparing Expert Knowledge with Constraints on Realization.- 3.4 Comparison of the Importance and the Time of Realization.- 3.5 Comparison of the Time of Realization and the Time Variance.- 3.6 Comparing Certainty with Time of Realization Variance.- 3.7 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation with the Importance.- 3.8 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation and the Estimated Time of Realization.- 3.9 Comparison of the Necessity for International Co-operation and the Present R&D Level.- 3.10 Correlation between Constraints and the Necessity of International Co-operation.- 3.11 Correlation of the R&D Level and the Importance of the Topics.- 3.12 Time of Realization and R&D Level.- 3.13 Correlation between the R&D Level and the Various Constraints on the Realization.- 3.14 Comparison of the Importance and the Various Constraints on the Realization.- 3.14.1 Technical Constraints.- 3.14.2 Cultural Constraints.- 3.14.3 Constraints in Costs.- 3.14.4 Constraints in Funding.- 3.14.5 Constraints in Fostering or Securing Human Resources.- 3.14.6 Constraints in the R&D System.- 3.15 Time of Realization in Comparison with the Constraints on Realization.- 3.15.1 Technical Constraints.- 3.15.2 Constraints in Funding.- 3.15.3 Constraints in Fostering or Securing Human Resources.- 3.15.4 Constraints in the R&D System.- 3.16 Comparative Conclusions for the Countries.- 4 Cross Comparisons of Technological Topics on the Micro Level.- 4.1 Comparing some Important Innovation Scenarios.- 4.1.1 Nanometer-size Structures.- 4.1.2 Cancer.- 4.1.3 Alzheimer¿s Disease.- 4.1.4 Renewable Sources of Energy.- 4.2 Estimation of the Importance on the Micro Level.- 4.2.1 Ranking by Importance in Japan and Germany.- 4.2.2 Ranking by the Difference in the Importance.- 4.3 Forecast of the Realization Times on the Micro Level.- 4.3.1 Near Future.- 4.3.2 Distant Future.- 4.3.3 Large Differences in the Realization Time.- 4.4 International Co-operation.- 4.4.1 Necessity for International Co-operation on the Micro Level.- 4.4.2 Ranking of the Major Differences in International Cooperation.- 4.5 Time Variance of the Forecast Compared with Certainty.- 4.6 Most Efficient Innovation Projects.- 4.6.1 Materials and Processing.- 4.6.2 Information and Electronics.- 4.6.3 Life Sciences.- 4.6.4 Particles.- 4.6.5 Marine Science and Earth Science.- 4.6.6 Mineral and Water Resources.- 4.6.7 Energy.- 4.6.8 Environment.- 4.6.9 Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries.- 4.6.10 Production.- 4.6.11 Urbanization and Construction.- 4.6.12 Communications.- 4.6.13 Space.- 4.6.14 Transportation.- 4.6.15 Medical Care and Health.- 4.6.16 Culture and Lifestyles.- 4.6.17 Conclusions from the Most Efficient Innovation Projects.- 5 Conclusions.- Literature.
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