Introductory Lecture.- Decisions and Proper Scoring Rules.- Geometric Representation of Brier's Rule.- Bayes' Theorem.- Physical Probability and Complexity.- Stochastic Independence and Random Sequences.- Superstition and Frequentism.- Exchangeability.- Distributions.- The Concept of Mean.- Induction and Sample Randomization.- Complete Additivity and Zero Probabilities.- The Definitions of Probability.- The Gambler's Fallacy.- "Facts" and "Events".- "Facts" and "Events": An Example.- Prevision, Random Quantities, and Trievents.- Désir André's Argument.- Characteristic Functions.
Bruno de Finetti (1906-1985) is the founder of the subjective interpretation of probability, together with the British philosopher Frank Plumpton Ramsey. His related notion of "exchangeability" revolutionized the statistical methodology. This book (based on a course held in 1979) explains in a language accessible also to non-mathematicians the fundamental tenets and implications of subjectivism, according to which the probability of any well specified fact F refers to the degree of belief actually held by someone, on the ground of her whole knowledge, on the truth of the assertion that F obtains.
The best non technical introduction to the radical subjectivism in probability by its founder, thoroughly commented on by one of his students
A guide to de Finetti's radical probabilism and its impact on today's philosophical debates
A unique testimony of de Finetti's views by a commented transcription of his interaction with his peers and students
A unique source for the historically oriented philosopher of probability and statistics
No scholar seriously interested in the foundations of probability and in the history of Bayesianism should ignore this book